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The gradual growth of autonomous vehicles

A new report predicts that more than half of all vehicles produced by 2024 will have some level of automation, ranging from Levels 1-5. In its Worldwide Autonomous Vehicle Forecast report, International Data Corporation forecasts that there will be 54.2 million vehicles with Level 1 autonomy in 2024, up from 31.4 million in 2019. This represents a compound growth rate of 11.5%.
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new report predicts that more than half of all vehicles produced by 2024 will have some level of automation, ranging from Levels 1-5 (see graphic above).

  • In its Worldwide Autonomous Vehicle Forecast report, International Data Corporation forecasts that there will be 54.2 million vehicles with Level 1 autonomy in 2024, up from 31.4 million in 2019. This represents a compound growth rate of 11.5%.
  • Level 0 cars, which are the most common now, will be far and fewer in favour of vehicles with greater autonomous functionality, the report says.
  • Vehicles capable of Levels 1 and 2 autonomy will be the largest areas of autonomous growth, with the most investment and advancement through 2024.
  • Fully autonomous SAE Levels 4 and 5 vehicles will still remain largely aspirational, it says.Overall, Levels 3-5 global shipments are expected to grow from a “modest” 2019 amount to more than 850,000 units by 2024.
  • “The pathway to increased vehicle autonomy will be largely built on gradual feature and capability advancements,” IDC research manager Matt Arcaro said.

Society of Automotive Engineers’ (SAE) Levels of Driving Automation:

  • SAE Level 0 — No automation: All dynamic driving tasks are done by a human driver.
  • SAE Level 1 — Driver assistance: Autonomous driving functions may situationally assist through active steering or braking/acceleration for certain dynamic driving tasks. The driver remains responsible and in control of the vehicle.
  • SAE Level 2 — Partial driving automation: Autonomous driving functions may assist by providing both active steering and braking/acceleration support for specific dynamic driving tasks. The driver is expected to remain attentive, be in control, and is responsible for all other dynamic functions.
  • SAE Level 3 — Conditional automation: The autonomous driving system performs all dynamic driving tasks on behalf of the driver under certain environmental and roadway situations. The driver must always remain prepared to intervene and take active control of the vehicle.
  • SAE Level 4 — High automation: The system can perform all dynamic driving tasks under certain environmental and roadway situations. There are no requirements for a driver to be present or attentive.
  • SAE Level 5 — Full driving automation: The system can autonomously perform all dynamic driving tasks across all combinations of roadway and environmental conditions. There are no requirements for a driver to be present or attentive.

The development of autonomous driving cars requires the handling of huge amounts of data produced by test vehicles and solving a number of critical challenges specific to the automotive industry.

In this youtube video BMW describe these challenges and how they are overcoming them by adapting and reinventing existing big data solutions for their end-to-end data journey for autonomous driving.

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